FORECASTED WINS BY STATE (hover for more info)

FORECAST CHANCES

Fmr. VP Joe Biden

360

President Donald Trump

178

UPDATED JUL. 23TH 23:30PST

This forecast model inputs three parameters for each competition: an average of state and national polls, a proprietary index which weighs those polls on accuracy, and finally an additional weight based on the current standing of the 13 Keys.

State
EC Votes
Democrat
Republican
3rd Party
Margin
Alabama
9
39.25%
57.91%
2.84%
Trump +18.66%
Alaska
3
44.03%
53.04%
2.93%
Trump +9.01%
Arizona
11
49.69%
47.08%
3.23%
Biden +2.61%
Arkansas
6
46.36%
50.63%
3.01%
Trump +4.27%
California
55
65.09%
31.91%
3.0%
Biden +33.18%
Colorado
9
56.76%
39.9%
3.34%
Biden +16.86%
Connecticut
7
61.97%
35.14%
2.89%
Biden +26.83%
District of Columbia
3
93.31%
3.61%
3.08%
Biden +89.7%
Delaware
3
59.46%
37.88%
2.66%
Biden +21.58%
Florida
29
51.49%
45.29%
3.22%
Biden +6.2%
Georgia
16
47.3%
49.93%
2.77%
Trump +2.63%
Hawaii
4
69.3%
27.72%
2.98%
Biden +41.58%
Idaho
4
29.16%
67.47%
3.37%
Trump +38.31%
Illinois
20
59.41%
37.5%
3.09%
Biden +21.91%
Indiana
11
42.57%
53.99%
3.44%
Trump +11.42%
Iowa
6
48.16%
48.83%
3.01%
Trump +0.67%
Kansas
6
42.64%
54.17%
3.19%
Trump +11.53%
Kentucky
8
37.81%
59.1%
3.09%
Trump +21.29%
Louisiana
8
37.39%
59.85%
2.76%
Trump +22.46%
Maine
2
56.67%
39.91%
3.42%
Biden +16.76%
Maine 1st District
1
61.52%
35.41%
3.07%
Biden +26.11%
Maine 2nd District
1
50.1%
46.45%
3.45%
Biden +3.65%
Maryland
10
62.08%
34.95%
2.97%
Biden +27.13%
Massachusetts
11
67.47%
29.17%
3.36%
Biden +38.3%
Michigan
16
53.57%
43.61%
2.82%
Biden +9.96%
Minnesota
10
53.89%
43.22%
2.89%
Biden +10.67%
Mississippi
6
42.82%
54.03%
3.15%
Trump +11.21%
Missouri
10
45.11%
51.75%
3.14%
Trump +6.64%
Montana
3
43.22%
53.7%
3.08%
Trump +10.48%
Nebraska
2
34.19%
62.71%
3.1%
Trump +28.52%
Nebraska 1st District
1
29.06%
67.92%
3.02%
Trump +38.86%
Nebraska 2nd District
1
51.6%
45.43%
2.97%
Biden +6.17%
Nebraska 3rd District
1
20.19%
76.92%
2.89%
Trump +56.73%
Nevada
6
52.66%
44.52%
2.82%
Biden +8.14%
New Hampshire
4
53.43%
43.52%
3.05%
Biden +9.91%
New Jersey
14
60.98%
35.89%
3.13%
Biden +25.09%
New Mexico
5
56.3%
40.53%
3.17%
Biden +15.77%
New York
29
63.94%
33.0%
3.06%
Biden +30.94%
North Carolina
15
49.65%
47.05%
3.3%
Biden +2.6%
North Dakota
3
39.11%
57.63%
3.26%
Trump +18.52%
Ohio
18
47.79%
49.03%
3.18%
Trump +1.24%
Oklahoma
7
34.49%
62.69%
2.82%
Trump +28.2%
Oregon
7
63.49%
33.57%
2.94%
Biden +29.92%
Pennsylvania
20
52.49%
44.71%
2.8%
Biden +7.78%
Rhode Island
4
60.45%
36.06%
3.49%
Biden +24.39%
South Carolina
9
43.32%
53.55%
3.13%
Trump +10.23%
South Dakota
3
36.84%
60.2%
2.96%
Trump +23.36%
Tennessee
11
41.43%
55.53%
3.04%
Trump +14.1%
Texas
38
48.59%
48.5%
2.91%
Biden +0.09%
Utah
6
43.27%
53.19%
3.54%
Trump +9.92%
Vermont
3
62.45%
34.45%
3.1%
Biden +28.0%
Virginia
13
42.86%
54.05%
3.09%
Trump +11.19%
Washington
12
64.46%
32.61%
2.93%
Biden +31.85%
West Virginia
5
20.07%
76.82%
3.11%
Trump +56.75%
Wisconsin
10
52.75%
44.11%
3.14%
Biden +8.64%
Wyoming
3
20.3%
76.52%
3.18%
Trump +56.22%