FORECASTED WINS BY STATE (hover for more info)

FORECAST CHANCES

President Donald Trump

285

Fmr. VP Joe Biden

253

UPDATED APR. 15TH 15:05PST

This forecast model inputs three parameters for each competition: an average of state and national polls, a proprietary index which weighs those polls on accuracy, and finally an additional weight based on the current standing of the 13 Keys.

State
EC Votes
Democrat
Republican
3rd Party
Margin
Alabama
9
37.9%
61.1%
1.01%
Trump +23.2%
Alaska
3
41.25%
57.65%
1.1%
Trump +16.39%
Arizona
11
50.61%
48.39%
1.01%
Biden +2.22%
Arkansas
6
34.11%
64.74%
1.15%
Trump +30.63%
California
55
69.85%
29.15%
0.99%
Biden +40.7%
Colorado
9
51.83%
47.12%
1.05%
Biden +4.71%
Connecticut
7
57.31%
41.62%
1.08%
Biden +15.69%
District of Columbia
3
94.99%
4.03%
0.98%
Biden +90.97%
Delaware
3
59.0%
39.97%
1.03%
Biden +19.03%
Florida
29
48.82%
50.17%
1.01%
Trump +1.35%
Georgia
16
45.63%
53.36%
1.01%
Trump +7.72%
Hawaii
4
69.66%
29.3%
1.03%
Biden +40.36%
Idaho
4
29.76%
69.08%
1.16%
Trump +39.31%
Illinois
20
60.57%
38.42%
1.01%
Biden +22.15%
Indiana
11
38.65%
60.35%
1.0%
Trump +21.71%
Iowa
6
43.68%
55.28%
1.04%
Trump +11.6%
Kansas
6
40.37%
58.65%
0.98%
Trump +18.28%
Kentucky
8
32.61%
66.38%
1.01%
Trump +33.77%
Louisiana
8
37.86%
61.09%
1.05%
Trump +23.24%
Maine
2
53.83%
45.22%
0.95%
Biden +8.61%
Maine 1st District
1
55.93%
43.02%
1.05%
Biden +12.9%
Maine 2nd District
1
47.48%
51.46%
1.06%
Trump +3.98%
Maryland
10
63.69%
35.31%
0.99%
Biden +28.38%
Massachusetts
11
67.91%
31.07%
1.03%
Biden +36.84%
Michigan
16
49.47%
49.59%
0.93%
Trump +0.12%
Minnesota
10
53.73%
45.26%
1.01%
Biden +8.47%
Mississippi
6
40.68%
58.31%
1.01%
Trump +17.63%
Missouri
10
40.92%
58.15%
0.93%
Trump +17.23%
Montana
3
36.17%
62.79%
1.04%
Trump +26.62%
Nebraska
2
34.03%
64.95%
1.02%
Trump +30.91%
Nebraska 1st District
1
29.01%
70.04%
0.95%
Trump +41.02%
Nebraska 2nd District
1
46.57%
52.45%
0.97%
Trump +5.88%
Nebraska 3rd District
1
20.63%
78.34%
1.03%
Trump +57.71%
Nevada
6
51.32%
47.62%
1.06%
Biden +3.7%
New Hampshire
4
51.45%
47.41%
1.13%
Biden +4.04%
New Jersey
14
57.36%
41.61%
1.03%
Biden +15.75%
New Mexico
5
54.07%
44.92%
1.01%
Biden +9.15%
New York
29
62.86%
36.09%
1.05%
Biden +26.78%
North Carolina
15
47.09%
51.92%
0.99%
Trump +4.84%
North Dakota
3
33.64%
65.43%
0.94%
Trump +31.79%
Ohio
18
47.17%
51.8%
1.02%
Trump +4.63%
Oklahoma
7
33.86%
65.18%
0.96%
Trump +31.31%
Oregon
7
65.1%
34.01%
0.89%
Biden +31.09%
Pennsylvania
20
48.24%
50.79%
0.97%
Trump +2.54%
Rhode Island
4
62.62%
36.28%
1.1%
Biden +26.34%
South Carolina
9
42.6%
56.39%
1.01%
Trump +13.8%
South Dakota
3
37.3%
61.8%
0.9%
Trump +24.5%
Tennessee
11
39.59%
59.34%
1.07%
Trump +19.75%
Texas
38
46.14%
52.84%
1.03%
Trump +6.7%
Utah
6
37.94%
60.9%
1.16%
Trump +22.95%
Vermont
3
63.57%
35.44%
0.99%
Biden +28.13%
Virginia
13
54.12%
44.74%
1.14%
Biden +9.37%
Washington
12
62.94%
36.02%
1.04%
Biden +26.92%
West Virginia
5
21.31%
77.63%
1.06%
Trump +56.32%
Wisconsin
10
50.52%
48.4%
1.07%
Biden +2.12%
Wyoming
3
21.25%
77.64%
1.1%
Trump +56.39%